El-Bathy, N Khalil
Sanchez, J. (2015). Forecasting public library e-content costs. Library Technology Reports, 51(8), 8-15.
Summary
Sanchez tracked the availability of content that was previously available in both print that is now only available online and discovered a 5% transition rate from print or print & digital availability to digital availability only. Sanchez predicts that even this moderate transition rate will have devastating effects for library budgets because of the higher cost of e-books compared to print books.
Evaluation
This article is a good introduction for anyone new to the task of budgeting, collection development, and e-books. Library Technology Reports, in general, is an invaluable tool for library professionals. Being nearly three years old, this article, however, is rather dated given the fast pace at which technology and market dynamics develop. I would be interested to read a more current article on the subject, especially one that discusses if and how the budget forecast presented here by Sanchez did or did not develop the way he envisioned. This article should be read along with "What Cost and Usage Data Reveals about E-book Acquisitions" by Carrico, Cataldo, Botero, and Shelton (2015), and also Rossman and Arlitsch's (2015) "From Acquisitions to Access."
While Sanchez paints a very bleak picture of the rising cost of e-books, he has left out many important considerations. For example, publishers don't want to price themselves out of business. The low production cost of e-book compared to print editions means that e-books are not too expensive to produce and sell at a profit. The rate of profit can afford to consider how much it's customers are willing and able to pay. The question is whether e-book publishing companies are willing to give up their sales contracts with the library industry because the latter can no longer afford to pay. Do these companies have other sustainable sources of revenue that make the library market for e-books obsolete? Even if they did, why not lower the price and make profit on top of those other profit revenue sources. Sanchez's explanation is worth considering but there are other variables and market practices he does not discuss.
